Oscar Round-Up (2005)

April lays odds on the Academy Awards!

Okay, not really. I realize that there's something to laying odds, and I don't know what it is, so my odds would automatically be wrong. I am, however, going to lay out some predictions and preferences and the like in case you were wondering what someone obsessed with movies was thinking about what some septuagenarians had to say about last year's motion pictures.

First off, let me remind you that while I do like the Academy Awards, and, while I do think that are some measure of merit, they absolutely do not represent the best movies of any given year. Most years, I am disappointed in the nominees. None the less, David Edlestein and I both like that they get people talking about movies, so I'm going to throw down about them anyway.

Or at least some of them.

And yes, it's true that I haven't seen all the movies, so maybe I shouldn't be judging. I think you know as well as I do, though, that seeing the movie isn't necessary when it comes to awards shows.

Performance by an actor in a leading role:

Nominees: Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda; Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator; Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby; Jamie Foxx, Ray.

I love Cheadle. I really do. I think that all these nominations for Hotel Rwanda, though, represent old white men saying "Genocide? Yeah, that shit's bad" rather than their feelings about the film. They don't care about Cheadle's brilliantly understated performance. They just want to remove some latent guilt for the way the world sat back and did nothing.

I also love Depp and DiCaprio, but Depp wasn't anything special. I've seen him do stuff that required much more than this performance, and he got nothing for that work. He doesn't deserve the win here.

For DiCaprio, I think the Golden Globe combined with the nod is enough. He's mature enough to take the loss.

Eastwood was spectacular, but you shouldn't get an award just for finally crying.

Who will win: Foxx. Who should win: Paul Giamatti for Sideways, Jeff Bridges for The Door in the Floor, Jim Carrey for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.

I can't always get what I want, can't I?

Performance by an actor in a supporting role:

Noms: Alan Alda, The Aviator; Thomas Hayden Church, Sideways; Jamie Foxx, Collateral; Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby; Clive Owen, Closer.

Foxx was a lead in Collateral, but you cannot be nominated in the same category twice in the same year. He can't win twice, so that pretty much makes this nod moot.

Giving Church a nod but not Giamatti is just a slap in the face. Church was good but not good enough for the award.

Freeman's Scrap was good, but it will likely continue as a thankless role. It's not quite enough to push him out ahead of the rest of the pack.

Complete toss up between Alda and Owen. Both were equally fantastic in their deliciously villainous roles.

Who will win: Either Alda or Owen. Too close to call. Who should win: Can't you give the award to both of them?

Performance by an actress in a leading role:

Noms: Annette Bening, Being Julia; Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace; Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake; Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby; Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.

It doesn't matter who else was nominated or how good they were - this is a return of 2000's grudge match between Swank and Bening. Bening's a tremendously talented actress while Swank is merely a product of the overall production, but she'll win out again.

Who will win: Swank. Who should win: Moot point.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role:

Noms: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator; Laura Linney, Kinsey; Virginia Madsen, Sideways; Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda; Natalie Portman, Closer.

Portman was chilly and winsome, but the Golden Globe's enough. She's too young for anything more.

Poor Linney. Changing your appearance pretty much guarantees the Best Actress award (e.g. Nicole Kidman's fake nose in The Hours, Charlize Theron's transformation for Monster) but not supporting actress. You will remain egregiously under-rated.

What I said about Cheadle goes for Okonedo.

Blanchett's embodiment of Katherine Hepburn is nothing short of a miracle, and I think the Academy liked the real thing enough to hand over the trophy. Plus the really should have just given her one back in '99 instead of the vapid and useless Gwyneth Paltrow

But Madsen's the real prize here. I would die to have enough one iota of what she gave up there on the screen. She was luminous.

Who will win: Blanchett. Who should win: Madsen, without a shadow of a doubt.

Best motion picture of the year

Noms: The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, Ray, Sideways.

I find that these nods are always tied up with the director nods. If your movie is nominated, but you aren't, it means that your movie was good, but the Academy thinks you suck. If you are nominated, but your movie isn't, you are a talented filmmaker, but the movie doesn't represent your best work. As such Finding Neverland will never win.

I've resigned to the fact that the Academy hates Martin Scorcese. They never let him win! Just give him a freaking award already. Eastwood's going to win director, and with good reason, so The Aviator's out.

Million Dollar Baby is the front runner in this close race, and it was truly one of the best movies from last year. All three performers are truly inhabit their characters, and Eastwood's turned back to the kind of brilliant filmmaking that Academy probably misses. With good reason, again.

I haven't been able to bring myself around to Ray since I found out he co-author of his autobiography hated it so much. Sure, Ray got off the horse, but he made it through most days after that with copious amounts of Mary Jane and alcohol. He also still got divorced. And, unfortunately, he wasn't very successful during his lifetime. The movie just shouldn't win, and it likely won't.

Almost every critic on the planet this year agrees that Sideways is the best movie they've seen all year. They're right.

What will win: Million Dollar Baby. What should win: Sideways.

All in all, a very good year for movies.