Oscar Round-Up (2006)

'Bout that time, eh, chaps? Right-o.

To review the rules, click here.

To review the nominees in all categories (as Elfin April will only be concerning herself with six), click here.

Alright, kiddies, I'm just gonna call 'em like I see 'em. And, when it comes right down to it, you know I see a lot more of 'em than you do.

2005 was no 2004 in a lot of ways, including box office receipts. It was, however, better in at least one way: movies decided to mean something this year. They decided to have messages, morals, and values. To stand for something. To believe in something. To fight.

Don't get me wrong, I know that the Academy Awards are nothing more than a legitimizing exercise that celebrates a handful of truly worthwhile movies in a given year, so that Hollywood can get away with churning out hundreds of crappy movies that make money. I'm okay with that.

And so, without further ado, get out your pens and get ready to start handicapping the odds of your office Oscar pool:

Performance by an actor in a leading role:

Nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman as Truman Capote in Capote; Terrence Howard as Djay in Hustle & Flow; Heath Ledger as Ennis Del Mar in Brokeback Mountain; Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash in Walk the Line; and David Strathairn as Edward R. Murrow in Good Night, and Good Luck.

Were these movies spread out over five years, everyone one of these men would be walking away with a golden statuette in their hands. Unfortunately, that is not the case. And, really, it's such an one man race it's silly. Okay, maybe a two man race.

Those men, by the way, would be Hoffman and Ledger. Ledger mined depths of the soul previously unseen for his performance as a lover so tortured that he had nothing and was nothing, and you're lying if you tell me that the bottom doesn't fall out of your stomach during the last 45 seconds of that film. The heart aches just thinking about it.

But, really, does anything compare to the chameleon that is Hoffman? Can anything approach his pitch perfect performance that could have slid so easily into caricature? Does anyone still doubt this man's masterful control of the screen? I didn't think so.

Who will win: Hoffman. Who should win: Hoffman. Or any of them, really. I'll gladly offer up a snuggling service for any of these gentlemen after they get passed over (and I'm really just talking to you, Phoenix).

Performance by an actor in a supporting role:

Nominees: George Clooney as Bob Barnes in Syriana; Matt Dillon as Officer Ryan in Crash; Paul Giamatti as Joe Gould in Cinderella Man; Jake Gyllenhaal as Jack Twist in Brokeback Mountain; and William Hurt as Richie Cusack in A History of Violence.

Well, I can certainly tell you that Hurt isn't going to be picking up any consolation prizes for what A.V. Club readers deemed the best movie of the year. Sure, Dame Judi gets an award for eight minutes of screen time, but you did 10, sir, which is two too many. (I hold it distinctly possible that I will never get over the 1999 Academy awards. I'm just leveling with ya).

Baring a Brokeback sweep (odds: highly unlikely), Gyllenhaal will be heading home empty handed as well, although probably not by his lonesome. What, you think men who look like that go home alone if they don't want to? Neither do I.

I just don't want Dillon to win. I don't want Crash to win anything, ever, even though I acknowledge that it will pick up at least one statuette tomorrow evening. Just not this one. Pinning all of the acting hopes of an ensemble cast on, well, what wasn't the best performance of the lot is just plain dumb. Here's what I think should have happened: break-out star Howard should have pulled a reverse Jamie Foxx from last year: nominated in both categories and goes home with the Supporting award.

So, let's see. Will the Academy acknowledge their offensively poor treatment Giamatti in the past with a win this time around*, or will they hand it off to Clooney as a conciliation for the awards he certainly won't be hoisting in the same night**?

Who will win: Clooney. No one saw Cinderella Man last summer, after all. Who should win: Giamatti. Or Terrence Howard. Just sayin'.

*Although, really, how funny is it that what must have seemed like a surefire Oscar juggernaut about a year ago gets only three nods and only one of those is for acting? The acting, that is, of the lead that doesn't already have an Academy award?

** There is the off chance he could walk away with Original Screenplay, but I doubt it.

Performance by an actress in a leading role:

Nominees: Judi Dench as Mrs. Laura Henderson (durr) in Mrs. Henderson Presents; Felicity Huffman as Bree in Transamerica; Keira Knightley as Elizabeth Bennet in Pride & Prejudice; Charlize Theron as Josey Aimes in North Country; and Reese Witherspoon as June Carter in Walk the Line.

Man, women just don't get their fair share, do they? I mean, look at these nods. Two of them, tops, should even be nominated. The rest are just filler. Offensive filler.

So let's just skip ahead to those two ladies, shall we? Huffman, you and I know both know that prosthetics are usually a surefire way to walk away with an award, but, well, Witherspoon's got ya beat. I don't know if it's the autoharp, but her sass, spunk, and unconditional love are going to lock this one up.

Who will win: Witherspoon. Who should win: Witherspoon. Don't get on Tracey Flick's bad side.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role:

Nominees: Amy Adams as Ashley in Junebug; Catherine Keener as Harper Lee in Capote; Frances McDormand as Glory in North Country; Rachel Weisz as Tessa Quayle in The Constant Gardener; and Michelle Williams as Alma Del Mar in Brokeback Mountain.

Before I get into this, let me just say one quick thing: Anne Hathaway, in your last scene in Brokeback, you were stunning. You deserve at least some consideration for those two minutes alone. All that silent, glorious work, and people aren't even paying attention. Life isn't fair.

The most volatile category of the year in any given year, and this year seems even more difficult than the last. So it is.

Adams may be the critical darling of this category, but the chances of the Academy picking her as well are slim to none. Keener might just as well wrap herself up in one of Nell's cardigans because she's getting left out in the cold as well (yes, I did just make that bad of a pun. What's it to you?). McDormand - it isn't going to happen.

The question is: will they pick the hot, older pregnant lady or the hot, younger one? Again, barring a Brokeback sweep, they'll go with the English. The Academy loves an accent, after all.

Who will win: Weisz. Who should win: Adams.

Achievement in Directing/Best Motion Picture of the Year

Nominees: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain; Bennett Miller, Capote; Paul Haggis, Crash; George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck; Steven Spielberg, Munich.

On the plus side, I've seen all the nominees this year. On the negative side, the fact that each corresponding director and picture has been nominated means that I can't just eliminate nominees from each race for that very reason. They like to keep me on my toes, I guess.

Neither Haggis nor his monstrosity will pick up either award, but he will walk away with Original Screenplay. Good enough for me, in the sense that this movie deserves no awards consideration.

I've already said that I think Cloons is out of the running, and his beautifully crafted and shot picture, natch, is out with him.

With no acting nods to accompany it, Spielberg and Munich don't have much of a chance either. Too bad, really. It was a wonderfully suspenseful drama-thriller.

When it comes right down to it, will the Oscar go to the the guy nobody's heard of or the guy we already know the Academy likes?

Who will win: Ang Lee/Brokeback Mountain. Who should win: Ang Lee/Brokeback Mountain.

Gentle reader, we will talk again Monday about my accuracy or lack thereof, who wore what, and whether his performance has caused my love of Jon Stewart to grow or diminish.