Oscar Round Up (2009)

Let's do this thing. View full list of nominees.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Amy Adams in Doubt
Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis in Doubt
Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler

I didn't mention Henson at all in my review of Button or say much about Tomei in The Wrestler. It's not that either of them don't deserve consideration. They are both great in their respective roles (though it's hard to pick out exactly what's meant to be so extraordinary about Henson's work. Tomei manages to imbue the old stripper with a heart of gold trope with an earthiness that grounds the character). I mention these things because I don't think either one is going to win. Instead, that'll go to . . .

Who will win: Cruz. Which is fine by me, as she is by far the spark that makes the movie come alive.
Who should win: From the list, Davis. She gets more across in her ten minutes of screen time than most other actors can in an entire movie. I hope she wears something fantastic tomorrow night. Going outside the list, Debra Winger and Rosemarie Dewitt for Rachel Getting Married.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie in Changeling
Melissa Leo in Frozen River
Meryl Streep in Doubt
Kate Winslet in The Reader

Do you think Streep ever saw Hathaway as competition when they were making The Devil Wears Prada? While I doubt that Streep thinks that way, I doubt she would have if she did. While it's great to see something as small as Frozen River up there and a great character actress like Leo on the list, that's as far as she'll get. Jolie's nod feels like par for the course, and, though Hathaway deserves it for shedding her lingering Princess Dairies shimmer and bringing something truly revelatory to the screen, she's not really much of a contender. It's a Streep-Winslet grudge match.

Who will win: Winslet.
Who should win: Hathaway.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Josh Brolin in Milk
Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road

Since this category's been a foregone conclusion for months, let's take a moment to note how unimaginative it is. Downey, sure, but why not go whole hog and put Cruise up there? Ledger, yes, but let's not forget about Eckhart. Harvey Dent made that movie. What about a little something for Michael Sheen? Brolin deserves it for waking up a couple of years ago and deciding to knock every one's socks off, and Shannon deserves it most of all for breathing such life into the holy fool trope that the role became that movie's lightening rod.

Who will win: Ledger.
Who should win: Ledger. That's right. If that's the list you're going to give me, that's how I vote. It's a stunning performance, and those who suggest otherwise is just looking to be contrary.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Richard Jenkins in The Visitor
Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn in Milk
Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler

Much like Leo on the leading lady list, it's nice to see some recognition for a consummate character actor like Jenkins. He won't win, but it'll be great to see him there. Langella should have won last year for Starting out in the Evening, and I doubt the Academy is going to rectify that this year. Same goes for Pitt's work in The Assassination of Jesse James. Which leaves us with showdown between Penn, playing a truly likable character that he refuses to allow to slip into caricature, and Rourke, whose crazy Oscar campaign only underlines want an amazing feat his raw performance truly was. This is the closest race of the bunch.

Who will win: Rourke.
Who should win: Rourke. Why not? Also, Robert Downey Jr for Iron Man, Christian Bale for The Dark Knight, François Bégaudeau for Entre les murs . . .

Achievement in Directing and Best Motion Picture of the Year

We've got five for five this year, and, as I have said in the past, it's hard to talk about one and not the other.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, David Fincher
Frost/Nixon, Ron Howard
Milk, Gus Van Sant
The Reader, Stephen Daldry
Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle

I've seen and reviewed all these movies, so I'm just going to call it.

Who will win: Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Who should win: Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire. Neither it nor him fit the "little indie that could" bill that has been applied during its campaign, but it's the best of the bunch. I sincerely hope that Anthony Dod Mantle wins for cinematography as well. Love that man. This year, I think that means something. The only upset I can see is in favour of the Van Sant/Milk combo.

I'll tell you what, though. I will laugh and laugh if I get this all wrong.