Oscar Round Up (2008)

To review the rules, click the label and read the original Oscar Round Up post.

Forgotten who's nominated? Here's your hook up.

Last year I was once again stuck at a rate of 5/6, but I am learning to live with it. It's a good ratio if you think about it. This was, as it turns out, a spectacular year for movies, and it's even more exciting to see that a lot of deserving movies are up for Academy Awards this year. Let's move on to the predictions then, shall we?

Performance by an actor in a leading role

George Clooney in Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises

This has got to be one of the saddest line ups I've seen in years. Not because the performances are poor. They're are each individually astonishing. It's sad that they all have to go up against each other at the same time knowing only one will win it, especially given that who will win is a virtual lock. It's a pity really. I'd like to see what, say, Mortensen or Depp would say given the opportunity.

Who will win: Day-Lewis.

Who should win: The far recesses of my brain just spat out Steven Buscemi for Interview, if you can imagine, although I'd add Glen Hansard for Once to that list. Choosing amidst the list, it would really have to go to Depp. He sings and slashes throats. What more does the Academy want from him?

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton

My, how offensive this category is right off the bat. He's the fucking lead in that movie. His character's name is in the title for pete's sake! Again, this is a sad line up for the reasons stated above. If Holbrook picks up the statue, it will be one of those lifetime-achievement-in-disguise awards, to which I am historically not opposed. If any of them won, really, I don't think I could find a reason to argue. Even so, I'm going to go with . . .

Who will win: Bardem.

Who should win: Affleck, for lead actor. For reals.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie in Away from Her
Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney in The Savages
Ellen Page in Juno

Damn it, why did they have to go and make the men's categories so easy to call and the women's so tough? Let's drop Blanchett for her unappealing turn in an unappealing movie, and Linney for no other reason than the fact that is just seems so unlikely. That leaves us with Page (a relative newcomer, which Oscar has traditionally favoured in this category), Cotillard (a young French stunner), and Chirstie (stirring performance in a thoroughly depressing movie). Page is the odds on favourite, although I'd say that the real grudge match is between Cotillard and Christie. Tricky.

Who will win: Christie.
Who should win: Wei Tang for Lust, Caution, Emily Mortimer for Lars and the Real Girl, Markéta Irglová for Once.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Cate Blanchett in I’m Not There
Ruby Dee in American Gangster

Saoirse Ronan in Atonement

Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton

Let's save ourselves some time and admit that it seems to be down to Blanchett and Dee. One of them didn't have a lot of screentime but has a lifetime of work worth rewarding (à la Holbrook) and the other was a knockout in the midst of several deserving performances. She's the very centre of a movie that would seem to have no centre without her. Plus the Academy has a crush on her in a big way. Even so . . .

Who will win: Dee (?). This one's gonna be close. I wish we could see the numbers on it after the envelope is opened.
Who should win: Blanchett. Who am I to deny it?

Achievement in directing / Best motion picture of the year

Directing:

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Julian Schnabel
Juno, Jason Reitman
Michael Clayton, Tony Gilroy
No Country for Old Men, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood, Paul Thomas Anderson

Picture:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men

There Will Be Blood

There's no better way to handicap one than to invoke the other. A given movie won't necessarily bring home the pair, but it will almost never bring home the big one without at least a director nod.

That said, we can eliminate . . . Atonement. Aw, crap. I didn't think Atonement would win in the first place. Now I am going to have to think about this. Clayton was smart and twisty, and, while everyone likes it, no one seems to love it. If Juno goes home with the prize, it would be the result of No Country and Blood splitting the dark, decaying America vote. I hope it doesn't. Both of the last two films are masterworks bound to resonate for years to come. I may have given them different grades, but I'm not sure one truly is better than the other. They're both outstanding examples of why filmmaking can be vital. They are both nominated for picture, director, and adapted screenplay. It's simply a question of whether there will be a sweep or whether someone will be going home with a consolation prize.

Who will win: Schnabel / No Country for Old Men.
Who should win: I'd be more than pleased to see either of the last two take Oscar home in both cases. Otherwise, stay tuned next week for my Top 10 of 2007.

What a fantastic year for film. I could be wrong about many of these. They're all so hard to call, and I love the Academy for getting that much right. Let's see what fun Jon has in for us come Sunday night.